There’s a rule of thumb from the last century that says “Spring moves north 13 miles a day.” On average this means that if crocuses began blooming in Morgantown, West Virginia a week ago they ought to start blooming in Butler, PA today.
However this year’s spring is so early and so hot that I’m wondering if the rule is still true. The animated map below shows spring leaf out moving north from 1 January through 10 March 2020. Some days spring leaps many miles.
According to the USA National Phenology Network, spring is many weeks ahead of schedule, particularly in the eastern US. It’s “three to four weeks earlier than a long-term average (1981-2010) in some locations. Washington, DC and New York City are 24 days early, Nantucket is 30 days early.” Wow!
Leaf out in Pittsburgh began in early February, tulip leaves emerged in late February and I saw the first crocus bloom last week.
So what do you think? Is spring moving faster than it used to? Or just sooner?
Follow the signs of spring at the USA National Phenology Network and Journey North. Here are some cool maps that track what’s going on:
- Animated Leaf Out map, based on honeysuckle leaves, at USANPN (shown above).
- Tulips emerge across the country at Journey North.
- Animated First Bloom map, based on lilacs and honeysuckles, at USANPN.
(photo from Wikimedia Commons; map from USA National Phenology Network; click on the captions to see the originals)
It seemed to me that compared to when I was a child, winter has basically been pushed back a few weeks or a month – the snows come later, etc. But this year we had practically no winter, so I don’t know how to answer that, other than hoping it’s a one-time anomaly rather than the new normal.
Our crocuses popped up earlier this week. Robins are everywhere. We heard red-winged blackbirds in our neighborhood last week.
Skunk cabbage are up – I have some good photographs, but I do not have an address to send them in.