12 October 2025

Yesterday morning BirdCast predicted high migration for our area but a distant nor’easter got in the way. By the end of the day Birdcast had changed its prediction but I didn’t see it until this morning and was quite surprised. What happened?

A nor’easter has been churning off of North Carolina’s Outer Banks bringing high surf, wind and heavy rain to southeastern Virginia and eastern North Carolina. As the sun set last night the storm was hitting those areas but its core was not tight yet (see 5:30pm green map below). At this point BirdCast had already changed their prediction.

By 9:30pm last night, birds were leaving our area but none were flying in. The rest of the state and most of the East Coast were a no-fly zone.

By this morning the nor’easter had tightened its core, the winds were much stronger and it was forcing east wind across Pennsylvania all the way to Pittsburgh. This wind map shows the air below 5000 feet — the region where most migratory birds fly overland.

You can see how it shut down migration over Pittsburgh in this BirdCast screenshot from 12 October at 5:30am EDT. The no-fly zone is now from Pennsylvania through South Carolina.

And the storm has certainly heated up. Here’s the latest from the OuterBanks via WRAL TV in Raleigh, NC.

No wonder the birds stayed put!