Category Archives: Climate Change

Breaking Up Is Easy in the Iceberg Graveyard

Iceberg A23a in Weddell Sea, 30 Nov 2023 (photo from Sentinel-2 satellite via Wikimedia Commons)

16 January 2026

A year ago the world’s largest iceberg was on a collision course with South Georgia Island, home to millions of penguins including king and macaroni species. A23a was larger than Rhode Island back then and if it lodged against the South Georgia shore it would block ocean access for all the penguins and they would starve.

In February 2025, A23a (the square white thing) seemed to dwarf South Georgia Island.

Iceberg A23a near South Georgia Island, 21 Feb 2025 (image from MODIS satellite, photo on Wikimedia)

But the dire predictions never materialized.

As NASA satellites continued to track A23a, it wandered and spun its way around South Georgia Island, then struck bottom west of the island in March 2025 where it has been melting in place ever since.

NASA map of A23a’s path up to 16 Nov 2024. I drew the remainder of the path to Jan 2026 by consulting other maps. South Georgia Island is highlighted in yellow.

NASA sometimes describes this area of the South Atlantic as the “iceberg graveyard.”

Water at this latitude—about 54 degrees South—is generally warmer than the Southern Ocean [that surrounds Antarctica] and is deadly for icebergs. When Southern Hemisphere winter ends in late September / early October the return of abundant sunlight further warms the water. The lack of sea ice in the vicinity of an iceberg implies that the water is above the freezing point.

— (paraphrased) NASA: A Place Where Icebergs go to Die

This month it was obvious, even from satellite, that A23a is disintegrating. Meltwater is ponding on the surface — visible as blue water — and trickling through the cracks in the ice, further weakening it.

Meltwater turns A23a blue, 26 December 2025 (satellite image from NASA)

This closeup shows striations and melt ponds.

Meltwater turns A23a blue, 27 December 2025 (satellite image from NASA)

Poseidon Expeditions paid a visit to A23a before the surface turned blue.

video embedded from Poseidon Expeditions on YouTube

By now A23a is 40 years old but its days are numbered. Breaking up is easy to do in the iceberg graveyard.

Polar Vortex Repeats

4 December 2025

The term Polar Vortex came into popular use about 12 years ago when Earth’s normally well behaved jet stream went wobbly and forced arctic air into the continental U.S. The high temperature map on 6 January 2014 indicated -20°F in Minnesota!

U.S. maximum temperature map for January 6, 2014 (graphic from NOAA)
U.S. maximum temperature map for January 6, 2014 (graphic from NOAA)

This week forecasters are talking “Polar Vortex” because the jet stream is wobbling again and we’re seeing the same effect. The slideshow at top is our low temperature series for today through next Tuesday 9 December. Pittsburgh’s highs will be below normal, hovering just above and below freezing.

It was much much colder in January 2014 but the difference this year is that it’s happening sooner, in some places setting temperature records for early December. And it repeats with very cold lows in Pittsburgh on the 4th & 5th, not so bad on 6th & 7th, and back again on 8th & 9th.

video embedded from AccuWeather on YouTube

Considering the repetition, if it’s so cold now will it be even worse six weeks later in mid January? Maybe not.

Sometimes a polar vortex brings unusually hot air. In mid January 2020 it was 70°F in Pittsburgh. Heat doesn’t look likely but we can hope. 😉

Birds Are Shrinking and This is Normal

Examining wing of Tennessee warbler during banding, Bird Lab at Hays Woods, 16 Sep 2025 (photo by Kate St. John)

30 September 2025. Old news but worth a look.

Lots of data is collected when a bird is banded or collected in a museum including species, sex, age, weight, wing and tarsus length. When nearly half a century of this data was analyzed at Powdermill in 2010 and at Chicago’s Field Museum in 2019 it became apparent that very slowly, over a period of nearly half a century, North American birds have been shrinking and in many cases their wings are getting longer.

Measuring the wing of Lincoln sparrow during banding (photo from Wikimedia Commons)

The Powdermill and Field Museum studies both found a correlation between size change and the annual mean summer temperature of the species’ breeding range. They reached the same conclusion: As the climate heats up, migratory birds are getting smaller.

What about birds that never migrate?

A similar study in 2021 at the Amazon Biodiversity Center in Brazil analyzed 40 years of data on 77 species and found the same thing. Nearly every non-migratory species became smaller and 1/3 of them had longer wings. Warmer climate was the only known variable at that site.

Golden-crowned spadebill banding, Amazonian Ecuador (photo from Wikimedia Commons)

So many places on Earth are getting warmer, even the Amazon as shown on this temperature anomaly map from 2024.

Earth’s surface temperature anomaly in 2024, plus graph of the last 48 years of temperature anomalies relative to 20th century average temperature (from NOAA)

The birds are shrinking and this is normal. Very slowly, as their home territories heat up, bird bodies are following Bergmann’s Rule regarding body size and temperature.

Bergmann’s Rule: Within a species, populations living in colder climates have larger body size than those in warmer climates. Large animals have a lower surface-area-to-volume ratio so they lose heat more slowly in cold climates. Small animals have a higher surface-to-volume ratio and cool off faster when it’s hot.

To see this side-by-side, check out these song sparrows (Melospiza melodia) in the Carnegie Museum of Natural History’s Section of Birds. Song sparrows collected in Pennsylvania (on the left) are small and in Alaska (right) are large. Southern : warm : small. Northern : cold : large.

Song sparrow geographic size difference, Pennsylvania on left, Alaska on right from Carnegie Museum of Natural History Collection (photo by Kate St. John, Dec 2016)

Birds are adapting to climate change generation after generation.

The Drought Worsens

Drought grass and dead leaves at Frick Park, 20 Sept 2025 (photo by Kate St. John)

21 September 2025

In early August I started to notice drooping plants and drought-like conditions in my Pittsburgh neighborhood but U.S. Drought Monitor and the rainfall meter at Pittsburgh International Airport said everything was fine. Here in Pittsburgh’s East End we were in a localized drought. The rain clouds kept parting before they got here.

Since then it hasn’t rained anywhere in the area except for a bit on 4 September. The ground is brown, leaves are falling early, and it is still sunny and hot. Yesterday was 85°.

Drought: Playing field at Frick Park, 20 Sept 2025 (photo by Kate St. John)

By mid September we should have had 30 inches of precipitation in Pittsburgh. Instead we’ve had only 25.83 and the entire deficit has occurred since mid July.

U.S. Drought Monitor‘s national drought assessment map now shows parts of our area in Extreme Drought (red). Our area is circled in pink on the disjoint map below.

Maps from U.S. Drought Monitor at UNL

Will it end soon? The Weather Service predicts at 50% chance of rain on Monday night for a possible total of 0.39 inches and showers on Thursday that might drop more than 0.85 inches. But in my experience a 50% chance of rain during a drought is just wishful thinking.

We’ll see.

p.s. Why the disjoint map? The tri-state area of Ohio, western PA and West Virginia is split into two regions by U.S. Drought Monitor along the Ohio River and at the PA-OH line.

Seen This Week: Drought and Insects

Gabrielle Marsden releases a zebra swallowtail at Schenley Park, 31 August 2025 (photo by Kate St. John)

6 September 2025

This week I couldn’t help but notice the landscape looks very dry and plants are wilting.

Unwatered grass is brown in the drought, 2 September 2025 (photo by Kate St. John)
Orange jewelweed at Schenley Park is wilting in the drought, 31 August 2025 (photo by Kate St. John)

And now it’s official. Pennsylvania is in a moderate drought in Elk, Cameron, northwest Clearfield, western Allegheny, Beaver and Greene counties. Notice the pink arrows I added to this map from U.S. Drought Monitor at UNL.

Northeastern U.S. Drought Monitor map from unl.edu as of 2 Sept 2025

Dry weather hasn’t stopped the insects.

Gabrielle Marsden (@gobbism on Instagram) raises many kinds of butterflies, especially zebra swallowtails. She brought three adults to Schenley Park to release during the Botanical Society walk last Sunday. (See top photo) The butterflies’ host plant, the pawpaw tree, grows in Schenley.

Zebra swallowtails ready for release, 31 August 2025 (photo by Kate St. John)

Botanical Society of Western Pennsylvania walks focus on plants but the outings do not ignore the rest of nature. Bugs are often associated with specific plants so when we found cool bugs we took a look … and found a planthopper. He was easy to see because his bright green disguise doesn’t work in a drought.

Planthopper is too gren for the drought.

We also found the remnants of a scissor-grinder cicada who left his exoskeleton behind on a leaf.

Scissor-grinder cicada exoskeleton, Schenley Park, 31 Aug 2025 (photo by Kate St. John)

Sometimes the bugs found us. Steve Tirone had to stop in his tracks to avoid hurting the katydid on his shoe.

Katydid on Steve’s shoe, Schenley Park, 31 Aug 2025 (photo by Kate St. John)

p.s. I forgot to tell you what we saw on the Schenley Park outing last Sunday, 31 August.

Schenley Park outing, 31 August 2025 (photo by Kate St. John)

The birds were quiet and generally hard to find. We saw only 15 species. Best Birds were two immature red-tailed hawks that chased each other.

Canada Goose (Branta canadensis) 75 on Flagstaff Hill
Mourning Dove (Zenaida macroura) 3
Red-tailed Hawk (Buteo jamaicensis) 2 Immature hawks lazily chasing each other up the creek
Red-bellied Woodpecker (Melanerpes carolinus) 3
Downy Woodpecker (Dryobates pubescens) 2
Northern Flicker (Colaptes auratus) 6
Least Flycatcher (Empidonax minimus) 1
Blue Jay (Cyanocitta cristata) 8
Tufted Titmouse (Baeolophus bicolor) 1
European Starling (Sturnus vulgaris) 20
American Robin (Turdus migratorius) 25
House Finch (Haemorhous mexicanus) 16
American Goldfinch (Spinus tristis) 3
Song Sparrow (Melospiza melodia) 4 Adult & fledgling were not the color we expected. Both had a rumpled appearance as if they got dirty somehow.
Northern Cardinal (Cardinalis cardinalis) 4

View this checklist online at https://ebird.org/checklist/S270721752

What happens if we reach Dead Pool on the Colorado River?

Panorama of Glen Canyon Dam and downstream Colorado River (photo from Wikimedia Commons)

14 August 2025

After 25 years of drought in the Colorado River Basin the water levels at two major dams — Glen Canyon and Hoover — are getting dangerously low.

Map of Colorado River Basin indicating Glen Canyon and Hoover Dams (map from Wikimedia Commons)

Here’s the bathtub ring at Lake Powell as seen in March 2025 at the Glen Canyon Dam …

“Bathtub ring” at Lake Powell as seen from the Glen Canyon Dam, March 2025 (photo from Wikimedia Commons)

… and the bathtub ring at Lake Mead as seen in August 2024 at Hoover Dam.

“Bathub ring” on Lake Mead at Hoover Dam, August 2024 (photo from Wikimedia Commons)

Hydrologists are now talking about the possibility of “dead pool” at one of these dams. What is dead pool and what does it mean for the river?

The Glen Canyon Dam, completed in 1966, was designed for the relatively abundant water of the 1950s. The dam crest is more than 3,700 feet above sea level with two sets of pipes for water to pass through the dam: the hydropower intake at 3,490 feet for generating electricity, and the river bypass at 3,370 feet that sends water straight through the dam. This diagram from the Grand Canyon Trust shows how the dam works.

diagram of Glen Canyon Dam water levels from Grand Canyon Trust

The design engineers didn’t think about a drought. If Lake Powell’s surface falls below 3,370 feet there’s no way water can get through the dam. That’s called dead pool and it means the downstream river is dry.

This 4-minute video from Arizona’s 3TV CBS explains what will happen.

video embedded from Arizona’s Family 3TV CBS

Ironically, this means the Glen Canyon Dam’s useful life was only about 60 years.

Localized Drought

Looks like a drought near Herrs Island Pittsburgh, 3 August 2025 (photo by Kate St. John)

4 August 2025

Where I live in the City of Pittsburgh it looks like we’re in a drought. The ground is dry and plants are wilting as seen at this photo near Herrs Island yesterday.

Are we in a drought?

The U.S. Drought Monitor map indicates that the Eastern U.S. is just fine.

Map from U.S. Drought Monitor at UNL

Pittsburgh’s year-to-date weather graph shows just a slight dropoff in expected rainfall at the end of July. Otherwise we’re fine.

Pittsburgh Local Climate graph, 2025 YTD from PBZ National Weather Service

For comparison, click here to see Morgantown’s temperature and rainfall graph YTD 2025. They have had lots of rain.

Pittsburgh day-to-day rainfall in July tells an interesting story. It barely rained before I went to Finland on 13 July and has barely rained since I returned. But I missed more than an inch of rain in Moon Twp on 16 July. Did it rain here in the City on that day?

Pittsburgh July rainfall graph from PBZ National Weather Service

I ask this question because lately, when the National Weather Service predicts rain for Pittsburgh, it rains everywhere else in the region but the clouds part — north and south — before they reach the City.

You can see this happening on 31 July 2025 in these historical radar screenshots from weather.us. I remember this quite vividly because I canceled plans to attend an outing in Butler County as there was supposed to be heavy rain. Hah!

Historical radar screenshots from weather.us
Click here to see historical radar images at weather.us including other dates and places.

It seems I’m living in a localized drought. Is this happening to you, too?

UPDATE: On 12 August 2025 the US Drought Monitor shows we are Abnormally Dry

Map from U.S. Drought Monitor at UNL

Trees That Love Heat

Crape myrtle trees in bloom, Texas (photo from Wikimedia Commons)

3 July 2025

While last week’s heat wave broke here on Friday, I was in Virginia where the heat persisted and was even more intense. The temperature got up to 99° in Virginia Beach with a heat index somewhere near 110°F. I don’t remember the number. I stayed indoors. Meanwhile all the plants and animals were stuck outside in adverse conditions but one ornamental tree was thriving. Crape myrtle loves heat.

Crape myrtle in Virginia (photo from Wikimedia Commons)

Crape myrtle (Lagerstroemia sp., also spelled crepe myrtle) is a small ornamental tree or shrub from Asia and the Indian subcontinent that is widely planted in southeastern Virginia. There are many species and many varieties bred for color and local conditions.

Crape myrtle in Loudon County, Virginia (photo from Wikimedia Commons)

The trees that thrive in Virginia Beach are not the same variety that survives in Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh is too cold for typical crape myrtle so we have to plant cold tolerant varieties. I hear they were slow to bloom during our cold spring.

Thirteen years ago I marveled at crape myrtle’s resilience as I melted in the Virginia heat. Learn more in this vintage article.

Crape myrtle, Smithfield, VA, 7 July 2012 (photo by Kate St. John)

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Rinse And Repeat: Too Wet, Then Too Hot

Corn seedlings dying (“damping off”) after a flood (photo by Scot Nelson via Flickr Creative Commons license)

23 June 2025

May and June were very wet in western Pennsylvania, so much so that some crops won’t make it. @CBSPittsburgh interviewed Dan Yarnick about the floods at Yarnick’s Farm in Indiana County.

video on 19 June 2025, embedded from CBS Pittsburgh on YouTube

This week the flooding is over but now it’s way too hot.

Hot week predicted in Pittsburgh on 23 June 2025 (screenshot from NWS)

Six years ago I found a mapping tool from the University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science that predicted our future climate in 2080. I translated their prediction into the temperature and precipitation graphs below.

Graph comparing 2019 average high/low temperatures by month to 2080 prediction, Pittsburgh, with 100+ degrees maximum (graph by Kate St. John using current averages, adding UMCES prediction)
Graph comparing 2019 average rainall by month to 2080 prediction for Pittsburgh (graph by Kate St. John using current averages, adding UMCES prediction)

The prediction said it would happen 55 years from now, in 2080, but it seems that climate change is ahead of schedule.

Rinse and repeat. Bad weather is becoming bad climate.

Flooded corn field, June 2006 (photo by courane01 via Flickr Creative Commons license)

Read about the 2080 prediction and check out the interactive map at What Will Our Climate Feel Like in 60 Years?

The Crocus Report

Woodland crocuses blooming in the lawn on Neville Street, 4 March 2025 (photo by Kate St. John)

5 March 2025

The crocuses are blooming!

But of course they are. In yesterday’s sunny and unseasonably warm 67°F the woodland crocuses (Crocus tommasinianus) on Neville Street were in full bloom. I say “were” because today’s rain, clouds and wind will probably keep them closed.

The crocuses dotted the lawn, above, and opened their petals to the sun.

Woodland crocus blooming in the lawn on Neville Street, 4 March 2025 (photo by Kate St. John)

Honeybees came to take a sip.

Bee visits blooming crocuses in the lawn on Neville Street, 4 March 2025 (photo by Kate St. John)

Now that they’ve opened, how does this year’s crocus bloom date compare to those in the past? Is it later than usual because we had such a cold winter?

Surprisingly, this year is on the early end of the spectrum, based on my record of Crocus First-Bloom Dates in Pittsburgh’s East End since 2009.

Plotted on the calendar it’s easy to see that the dates cluster and the outliers are early, not late. Repeated dates are circled twice. Interestingly, the dates in February become earlier each time they occur.

2025 calendar from timeanddate.com showing Crocus blooming dates in Pittsburgh’s East End, 2009-2025

And the crocuses are not alone. Snowdrops are blooming too.

Snowdrops in bloom, 4 March 2025 (photo by Kate St. John)